A new statewide poll conducted by Harrisburg-based Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc., in the upcoming PA Democratic Presidential Primary Election shows Hillary Clinton at 40%, Obama-37% with 18% undecided.
This represents a significant drop from her 14-point lead in our last poll conducted March 5-10, where Clinton led by a 45/31 margin.
The current poll was conducted April 6-10 with 500 likely Democratic voters and has a margin of error of 4.3%.
More data below the fold.
Favorbale/Unfavorable:
Obama-62/19 (favorable to unfavorable ratio)
Clinton-61-25 (favorable to unfavorable ratio)
Regional Crosstabs:
Clinton still leads in the culturally conservative Southwest (57/17), the Northeast (44/26) and Central "T"/Johnstown-Altoona media market (40/32), but her leads in these areas has narrowed in comparison to March when she was winning with bigger margins. Perhaps most surprising is Clinton’s shrinking margin in the Northeast, her natural strength given her family ties to the area, where her 38-point, 56/18 margin over Obama in March has now shrunk to 18 points (a swing of 20). Meanwhile, Obama has strengthened his lead in the Harrisburg/South Central region (now 39/29), and surpassed Clinton in the 4 suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia (now 45/40), whereas Clinton led in March by a 42/35 margin; Obama’s 50/30 lead in Philadelphia is unchanged from our earlier poll.
Demographic breakdown:
Clinton holds a 48/34 lead with senior citizens and a 42/35 lead with voters who have the strongest primary vote history based on past primary elections (i.e., 3 or 4 of the last 4 primaries), while Obama holds a near 2:1 lead with voters under 45 years old and a 50/30 lead with black Democrats; among those with less vote history in the poll it’s a 39/38 dead heat.