A new poll from American Research Group confirms that the democratic race is still tight in Iowa. The result among likely caucus goers: Obama 27%,Clinton 25%,Edwards 23%. Margin of Error for this poll: 4%.
Among other democrats: Biden 8%, Richardson 4%.
More below the fold.
Trendline based on earlier ARG polls:
Clinton: Sep (30%), Oct (32%), Nov (25%)
Obama: Sep (24%), Oct (22%), Nov (27%)
Edwards: Sep (19%), Oct (15%), Nov (23%)
More data:
* 33% of likely caucus participants are undecided (8%) or say that they could switch candidates between now and January 3 (25%).
* 80% of those saying they support Clinton say their support is definite.
* 57% of those saying they support Edwards say their support is definite.
* 75% of those saying they support Obama say their support is definite.
* Among men, Clinton is at 22%, Edwards 22%, and Obama 30%.
* Among women, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards 24%, and Obama 25%.
UPDATE: Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic caucus goers living in Iowa (536 Democrats and 64 no party (independent) voters).
Sample Dates: November 26-29, 2007
Question Wording:
If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were being held today between (names rotated) Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote?
Would you say that you definitely plan to participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, that you might participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, or that you will probably not participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus?